Current and Projected Heat-Related Morbidity and Mortality in Rhode Island

Area of Science:

• Environmental health
• Climate change impact assessment
• Public health epidemiology

Background:

• Climate change is projected to increase heat-related mortality, especially in vulnerable populations.
• Further research is needed to understand heat's impact on morbidity across all age groups and temperature ranges.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the impact of current and future temperatures on morbidity and mortality in Rhode Island.
• To project excess morbidity and mortality under different climate change scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Used Poisson regression to analyze the association between daily maximum temperature and emergency department (ED) admissions and mortality.
• Employed Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate projections (RCP 8.5 and 4.5) to estimate future impacts.

Main Results:

• An increase in daily maximum temperature from 75 to 85°F correlated with higher rates of all-cause (1.3%) and heat-related (23.9%) ED visits.
• All-cause mortality increased by 4.0% with higher temperatures.
• Future projections (RCP 8.5, 2092-2099) suggest substantial increases in ED admissions and deaths.

Conclusions:

• Current Rhode Island populations face significantly higher morbidity and mortality risks with projected temperature increases.
• The study highlights the urgent need for adaptation strategies to mitigate heat-related health impacts.