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Detecting a Local Cohort Effect for Cancer Mortality Data Using a Varying Coefficient Model
Tetsuji Tonda1, Kenichi Satoh, Ken-ichi Kamo
1Faculty of Management and Information Systems, Prefectural University of Hiroshima.
Journal of Epidemiology
|August 11, 2015
Summary
A new statistical method effectively detects birth cohort effects on cancer mortality in Japan. This approach identified significant risks for liver cancer and protective effects for lung cancer in specific birth cohorts.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Biostatistics
- Public Health
Background:
- Cancer mortality is rising in Japan due to an aging population.
- Understanding cancer trends is crucial for effective cancer control planning.
- Time-related factors, including cohort effects, influence cancer mortality rates.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a statistical method for automatically detecting and assessing cohort effects in cancer mortality data.
- To apply this method to Japanese liver and lung cancer mortality data.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a varying coefficient model for statistical analysis.
- Developed an automated detection system for cohort effects.
- Applied the method to Japanese male mortality data for liver and lung cancer.
Main Results:
- The method successfully identified significant cohort effects for liver and lung cancer.
- A relative risk of 1.54 was found for liver cancer in the 1934 birth cohort.
- A relative risk of 0.83 was observed for lung cancer in the 1939 birth cohort.
Conclusions:
- The detected cohort effects align with previous epidemiological findings.
- The proposed method is sensitive for identifying previously undetected birth cohort effects.
- This statistical approach aids in understanding cancer mortality patterns and informing public health strategies.
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