Prognostic Factors for Local, Loco-regional and Systemic Recurrence in Early-stage Breast Cancer

Aim: The risk of recurrence in breast cancer depends on factors such as treatment but also on the intrinsic subtype. We analyzed the risk factors for local, loco-regional and systemic recurrence, evaluated the differences and analyzed the risk of recurrence for different molecular subtypes. Material and Methods: A total of 3054 breast cancer patients who underwent surgery followed by adjuvant treatment at HSK hospital or Essen Mitte Hospital between 1998 and 2011 were analyzed. Based on immunohistochemical parameters, cancers were divided into the following subgroups: luminal A, luminal B (HER2-), luminal B (HER2+), HER2+ and TNBC (triple negative breast cancer). Results: 67 % of tumors were classified as luminal A, 13 % as luminal B (HER2-), 6 % as luminal B (HER2+), 3 % as HER2+ and 11 % as TNBC. After a median follow-up time of 6.6 years there were 100 local (3.3 %), 32 loco-regional (1 %) and 248 distant recurrences (8 %). Five-year recurrence-free survival for the overall patient collective was 92 %. On multivariate analysis, positive nodal status, TNBC subtype and absence of radiation therapy were found to be independent risk factors for all forms of recurrence. Age < 50 years, tumor size, luminal B (HER2-) subtype and breast-conserving therapy were additional risk factors for local recurrence. Compared to the luminal A subtype, the risk of systemic recurrence was higher for all other subtypes; additional risk factors for systemic recurrence were lymphatic invasion, absence of systemic therapy and mastectomy. Conclusion: Overall, the risk of local and loco-regional recurrence was low. In addition to nodal status, subgroup classification was found to be an important factor affecting the risk of recurrence.