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Estimated 10-year cardiovascular mortality seriously underestimates overall cardiovascular risk
Harald T Jørstad1, Ersen B Colkesen1, S Matthijs Boekholdt1
1Department of Cardiology, Academic Medical Center-University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Insights
The European Society of Cardiology guideline multiplier for total cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is inaccurate. Total CVD risk is significantly underestimated, especially in younger individuals and women, when relying solely on CVD mortality data.
Area of Science:
- Cardiovascular Medicine
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) prevention guideline suggests using a fixed multiplier (3×) to estimate total cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk from CVD mortality.
- This proposed multiplier has not been validated in large, diverse populations.
- Accurate CVD risk assessment is crucial for effective prevention strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the ratio of total (fatal plus non-fatal) cardiovascular disease (CVD) to CVD mortality in a large, population-based cohort.
- To determine if a fixed multiplier can accurately represent the relationship between total CVD and CVD mortality across different demographic groups.
- To assess the validity of the ESC guideline's proposed multiplier.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of 24,014 men and women aged 39-79 years from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer and Nutrition-Norfolk cohort.
- Kaplan-Meier estimates were used to analyze CVD mortality and total CVD outcomes (including hospitalizations for ischemic heart disease, heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral artery disease, or aortic aneurysm).
- The primary outcome was the ratio of 10-year total CVD to 10-year CVD mortality, stratified by age and sex.
Main Results:
- Over 10 years, CVD mortality was 3.9%, and total CVD outcomes were 21.2%.
- The overall ratio of total CVD to CVD mortality was 5.4.
- Significant variations in the ratio were observed by age and sex, with higher ratios in younger individuals (e.g., 28.5 in young women) and lower ratios in older individuals (e.g., 2.4 in men aged 75-79).
Conclusions:
- The relationship between total CVD and CVD mortality is strongly dependent on age and sex.
- A fixed multiplier cannot accurately estimate total CVD risk from CVD mortality.
- Using CVD mortality alone for risk estimation leads to substantial underestimation, particularly in younger age groups and women.
Objective:
The European Society of Cardiology's prevention guideline suggests that the risk of total (fatal plus non-fatal) cardiovascular disease (CVD) may be calculated from the risk of CVD mortality using a fixed multiplier (3×). However, the proposed multiplier has not been validated. We investigated the ratio of total CVD to CVD mortality in a large population-based cohort.
Methods:
CVD mortality and total CVD (fatal plus non-fatal CVD requiring hospitalisation) were analysed using Kaplan-Meier estimates among 24 014 men and women aged 39-79 years without baseline CVD or diabetes mellitus in the prospective population-based European Prospective Investigation of Cancer and Nutrition-Norfolk cohort. CVD outcomes included death and hospitalisations for ischaemic heart disease, heart failure, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral artery disease or aortic aneurysm. The main study outcome was the ratio of 10-year total CVD to 10-year CVD mortality stratified by age and sex.
Results:
Ten year CVD mortality was 3.9% (900 CVD deaths, 95% CI 3.6% to 4.1%); the rate of total CVD outcomes was 21.2% (4978 fatal or non-fatal CVD outcomes, 95% CI 20.7% to 21.8%). The overall ratio of total CVD to CVD mortality was 5.4. However, we found major differences in this ratio when stratified by gender and age. In young women (39-50 years), the ratio of total CVD to CVD mortality was 28.5, in young men (39-50 years) 11.7. In the oldest age group, these ratios were considerably lower (3.2 in women and 2.4 in men aged 75-79 years).
Conclusions:
The relationship between 10-year total CVD and CVD mortality is dependent on age and sex, and cannot be estimated using a fixed multiplier. Using CVD mortality to estimate total CVD risk leads to serious underestimation of risk, particularly in younger age groups, and particularly in women.
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