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A retrospective and prospective study of the number of kidney transplants in 31 countries
C Chevalier1, J M Dupuy, M Busson
1INSERM U13 Hôpital Claude Bernard, Paris, France.
Insights
Cadaveric kidney transplantation (CKT) numbers are projected to significantly increase by 1993, driven by advancements in renal transplant procedures. This growth, however, remains constrained by the limited availability of donor organs for transplantation.
Area of Science:
- Nephrology
- Transplantation Surgery
- Public Health Policy
Background:
- Renal transplantation is a critical treatment for end-stage renal disease.
- The period from 1975 onwards saw increasing global activity in cadaveric kidney transplantation (CKT).
- Understanding trends in CKT is vital for resource allocation and future planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To predict the number of cadaveric kidney transplantations (CKT) expected in 1993.
- To analyze historical CKT data to inform future projections.
- To identify factors limiting transplantation activity.
Main Methods:
- Collected annual CKT data from 1975 to 1986 across 31 countries.
- Utilized an exponential model for data extrapolation and prediction.
- Confirmed data through published reports and center-specific questionnaires.
Main Results:
- An exponential model showed a high correlation (r² > 0.99) with retrospective CKT data.
- Total CKT between 1975-1986 was 114,000; projected to exceed 280,000 by 1993.
- Annual CKT in 1987 was over 16,500, with an estimated 26,000 expected in 1993.
Conclusions:
- Transplantation activity growth is primarily limited by donor organ availability.
- The maximum observed rate of 40 grafts per million population serves as a benchmark.
- Projections indicate substantial increases in CKT, necessitating strategies to address organ shortages.
Abstract:
The aim of the present study was to try to predict the number of cadaveric kidney transplantations (CKT) that will be performed in the year 1993. The raw data regarding the number of renal transplants that have been performed annually since 1975 in 31 countries, which were divided into six groups, were collected from published reports and confirmed by a questionnaire sent to all centers. The annual number of grafts was estimated using an exponential model, highly correlated with retrospective data (r2 greater than 0.99). Predictions for 1993 were extrapolated. The growth of transplantation activity is limited by a shortage of available donor organs. The maximum number of grafts was arbitrarily set at 40 per million population, which is the maximum rate currently observed. The total number of CKT carried out between 1975 and 1986 was 114,000; this will probably exceed 280,000 in 1993. The yearly activity in 1987 exceeded 16,500 and is expected to reach approximatively 26,000 grafts in 1993.