Ebola outbreak in West Africa: real-time estimation and multiple-wave prediction
Xiang-Sheng Wang1, Luoyi Zhong
1Department of Mathematics, Southeast Missouri State University, Cape Girardeau, MO 63701, United States. xswang@semo.edu.
Abstract:
Based on the reported data until 18 March 2015 and numerical fitting via a simple formula of cumulative case number, we provide real-time estimation on basic reproduction number, inflection point, peak time and final outbreak size of ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa. From our simulation, we conclude that the first wave has passed its inflection point and predict that a second epidemic wave may appear in the near future.
Related Concept Videos
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
Investigation of Disease Outbreaks
Cross-reactivity
Infectious Diseases and Their Occurrence
Principles of Disease Surveillance
Arboviral Encephalitis


