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A modified exponential behavioral economic demand model to better describe consumption data.

Mikhail N Koffarnus1, Christopher T Franck1, Jeffrey S Stein1

  • 1Virginia Tech Carilion Research Institute, Virginia Tech.

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A new exponentiated equation improves behavioral economic demand analysis by accurately including zero consumption values. This enhanced method offers better data fit and more precise parameter estimation for commodities like drugs of abuse.

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Area of Science:

  • Behavioral economics
  • Psychopharmacology
  • Quantitative psychology

Background:

  • Behavioral economic demand analysis quantifies commodity-price relationships, aiding study of reinforcing efficacy.
  • The Hursh and Silberberg (2008) exponential equation is useful but cannot analyze zero consumption values.
  • Accurate analysis of consumption data, including zero values, is crucial for understanding commodity demand.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate an exponentiated version of the Hursh and Silberberg equation for behavioral economic demand analysis.
  • To determine if the modified equation can accurately incorporate zero consumption values.
  • To compare the fitting capabilities and parameter estimation accuracy of the modified and unmodified equations.

Main Methods:

  • Experiment 1: Compared modified and unmodified equations using online cigarette consumption data (n=272), focusing on zero value treatment.
  • Experiment 2: Simulated 1,000 datasets with known parameters to assess equation fit and replication accuracy.
  • Statistical analysis focused on variance accounted for and accuracy of parameter estimation.

Main Results:

  • The unmodified equation yielded inconsistent results depending on zero value treatment.
  • The exponentiated version successfully incorporated zero values, accounted for more variance, and better estimated unconstrained consumption.
  • Simulated data analysis showed the exponentiated equation more accurately replicated known underlying parameters.

Conclusions:

  • The exponentiated Hursh and Silberberg equation offers superior data fitting capabilities in behavioral economic demand analysis.
  • This modified equation accurately accommodates all consumption values, including zero, enhancing its utility.
  • The exponentiated equation provides more accurate estimation of true demand parameters compared to the original model.