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Climate reconstruction analysis using coexistence likelihood estimation (CRACLE): a method for the estimation of
Robert S Harbert1, Kevin C Nixon1
1Section of Plant Biology, 412 Mann Library, School of Integrative Plant Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853, USA L.H. Bailey Hortorium, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853, USA.
American Journal of Botany
|August 21, 2015
Summary
A new method, Climate Reconstruction Analysis using Coexistence Likelihood Estimation (CRACLE), estimates local climate using plant species data. This approach accurately infers climate profiles, offering a valuable tool for paleoclimate research.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Paleoclimatology
- Biogeography
Background:
- Plant species distributions are strongly influenced by environmental conditions, especially climate.
- Coexisting plant communities reflect local environmental factors, providing potential climate proxies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To present a novel method for estimating local climate using plant species coexistence data.
- To validate the accuracy of this method against established climate models.
Main Methods:
- Developed Climate Reconstruction Analysis using Coexistence Likelihood Estimation (CRACLE), a likelihood-based approach.
- Utilized global plant specimen collection data to infer species' climate tolerances.
- Calculated maximum joint likelihood of species coexistence to estimate climate.
Main Results:
- CRACLE accurately inferred climate profiles for 165 diverse sites using data from over 4000 plant species.
- Estimates for mean annual temperature and precipitation showed high agreement with the WorldClim model.
- Achieved significant improvements over existing plant-based climate-proxy methods.
Conclusions:
- The CRACLE method confirms hypothesized links between climate and plant species associations.
- CRACLE-derived climate estimates are consistent with the WorldClim model.
- This method holds potential for quantitative paleoclimate estimations.
Keywords:
GBIFWorldClimclimate changeclimate nichesecological filteringpaleoclimateplant communityspecies coexistencevegetationMore Related Videos
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