An "epidemic" model of sexual intercourse prevalences for black and white adolescents

In adolescence (12-16 years), the prevalence of sexual intercourse increases each year. To explain the increasing yearly prevalences, we propose a recursive equation model of onset of adolescent sexual intercourse. The model allows for an "epidemic" process (the transmission of sexuality from a nonvirgin to a virgin) and a nonepidemic process (two virgins progressing to sexual intercourse). The model also requires that virgin females be pubertally mature before they will progress to sexual intercourse. Adequate fits were obtained to the intercourse prevalences for both black and white respondents. Comparisons of alternative models established that the full model was superior to models that omitted either the nonepidemic process or the requirement of females' pubertal maturation. The model was able to fit both white and blacks simultaneously, assuming equal transition probabilities in both races. Hence, we propose the hypothesis that race differences in sexual intercourse prevalence may be strongly influenced by the age of initiation of the "epidemic" process and by race difference in females' rates of pubertal maturation. The results suggested that most new cases of sexual intercourse arose from the epidemic process and that males were more prone to progress to intercourse, given an opportunity.