Plasma pro-brain natriuretic peptide and electrocardiographic changes in combination improve risk prediction in

Peter G Jørgensen1, Jan S Jensen1, Merete Appleyard2

  • 1The Copenhagen City Heart Study, Frederiksberg Hospital, Nordre Fasanvej 57, DK-2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark; Department of Cardiology, Herlev and Gentofte Hospital, University of Copenhagen, Kildegårdsvej 28, DK-2900 Hellerup, Denmark; Institute of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Blegdamsvej 3B, DK-2200 Copenhagen N., Denmark.

Insights

Combining electrocardiogram (ECG) changes and plasma pro-brain-natriuretic-peptide (pro-BNP) significantly improves cardiovascular disease risk prediction. This combined approach offers better identification of individuals at risk for mortality and cardiovascular events.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiology
  • Preventive Medicine
  • Biomarker Research

Background:

  • Electrocardiogram (ECG) and pro-brain-natriuretic-peptide (pro-BNP) are established markers for subclinical cardiac injury and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.
  • The independent predictive value of ECG changes and pro-BNP, and their combined utility, requires further investigation in asymptomatic populations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess whether ECG changes and pro-BNP are independent predictors of future CVD events.
  • To determine if the combination of ECG changes and pro-BNP enhances CVD risk prediction in individuals without pre-existing heart disease.

Main Methods:

  • Prospective cohort study involving 5454 participants without known heart disease.
  • Measurement of plasma pro-BNP and ECGs, with a median follow-up of 10.4 years.
  • Analysis of all-cause mortality and a composite endpoint of ischemic heart disease, heart failure, or CVD death.

Main Results:

  • Both high pro-BNP levels and ECG changes were independently associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality and CVD events.
  • The combination of high pro-BNP and ECG changes demonstrated a significantly higher hazard ratio for both outcomes compared to individual markers.
  • The combined assessment led to substantial improvements in risk reclassification for both all-cause mortality (33.9%) and CVD events (49.7%).

Conclusions:

  • ECG changes and pro-BNP are significant independent predictors of cardiovascular outcomes.
  • The combined use of ECG and pro-BNP provides additive value in predicting cardiovascular risk in the general population.
  • Integrating these markers into risk assessment models can improve the identification of individuals requiring closer monitoring or intervention.
Abstract

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