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Published on: January 28, 2020
Plasma pro-brain natriuretic peptide and electrocardiographic changes in combination improve risk prediction in
Peter G Jørgensen1, Jan S Jensen1, Merete Appleyard2
1The Copenhagen City Heart Study, Frederiksberg Hospital, Nordre Fasanvej 57, DK-2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark; Department of Cardiology, Herlev and Gentofte Hospital, University of Copenhagen, Kildegårdsvej 28, DK-2900 Hellerup, Denmark; Institute of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Blegdamsvej 3B, DK-2200 Copenhagen N., Denmark.
Insights
Combining electrocardiogram (ECG) changes and plasma pro-brain-natriuretic-peptide (pro-BNP) significantly improves cardiovascular disease risk prediction. This combined approach offers better identification of individuals at risk for mortality and cardiovascular events.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Preventive Medicine
- Biomarker Research
Background:
- Electrocardiogram (ECG) and pro-brain-natriuretic-peptide (pro-BNP) are established markers for subclinical cardiac injury and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.
- The independent predictive value of ECG changes and pro-BNP, and their combined utility, requires further investigation in asymptomatic populations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess whether ECG changes and pro-BNP are independent predictors of future CVD events.
- To determine if the combination of ECG changes and pro-BNP enhances CVD risk prediction in individuals without pre-existing heart disease.
Main Methods:
- Prospective cohort study involving 5454 participants without known heart disease.
- Measurement of plasma pro-BNP and ECGs, with a median follow-up of 10.4 years.
- Analysis of all-cause mortality and a composite endpoint of ischemic heart disease, heart failure, or CVD death.
Main Results:
- Both high pro-BNP levels and ECG changes were independently associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality and CVD events.
- The combination of high pro-BNP and ECG changes demonstrated a significantly higher hazard ratio for both outcomes compared to individual markers.
- The combined assessment led to substantial improvements in risk reclassification for both all-cause mortality (33.9%) and CVD events (49.7%).
Conclusions:
- ECG changes and pro-BNP are significant independent predictors of cardiovascular outcomes.
- The combined use of ECG and pro-BNP provides additive value in predicting cardiovascular risk in the general population.
- Integrating these markers into risk assessment models can improve the identification of individuals requiring closer monitoring or intervention.
Background:
Though the electrocardiogram(ECG) and plasma pro-brain-natriuretic-peptide (pro-BNP) are widely used markers of subclinical cardiac injury and can be used to predict future cardiovascular disease(CVD), they could merely be markers of the same underlying pathology. We aimed to determine if ECG changes and pro-BNP are independent predictors of CVD and if the combination improves risk prediction in persons without known heart disease.
Methods:
Pro-BNP and ECG were obtained on 5454 persons without known heart disease from the 4th round of the Copenhagen City Heart Study, a prospective cohort study. Median follow-up was 10.4 years. High pro-BNP was defined as above 90th percentile of age and sex adjusted levels. The end-points were all-cause mortality and the combination of admission with ischemic heart disease, heart failure or CVD death.
Results:
ECG changes were present in 907 persons and were associated with high levels of pro-BNP. In a fully adjusted model both high pro-BNP and ECG changes remained significant predictors: all-cause mortality(high pro-BNP, no ECG changes: HR: 1.43(1.12-1.82);P=0.005, low pro-BNP, ECG changes: HR: 1.22(1.05-1.42);P=0.009, and both high pro-BNP and ECG changes: HR: 1.99(1.54-2.59);P<0.001), CVD event(high pro-BNP, no ECG changes: HR: 1.94(1.45-2.58);P<0.001, low pro-BNP, ECG changes: HR: 1.55(1.29-1.87);P<0.001, and both high pro-BNP and ECG changes: HR: 3.86(2.94-5.08);P<0.001). Adding the combination of pro-BNP and ECG changes to a fully adjusted model correctly reclassified 33.9%(26.5-41.3);P<0.001 on the continuous net reclassification scale for all-cause mortality and 49.7%(41.1-58.4);P<0.001 for CVD event.
Conclusion:
Combining ECG changes and pro-BNP improves risk prediction in persons without known heart disease.
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