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Wishful thinking in preschoolers.

Stéphane Bernard1, Fabrice Clément1, Hugo Mercier1

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Summary

Young children demonstrate wishful thinking, where desires shape beliefs, especially when they can keep desirable outcomes. However, some 5-year-olds use logical reasoning instead, showing cognitive development impacts belief formation.

Keywords:
Motivated reasoningOptimistic predictionsPreschoolersProbabilistic cognitionRepresentativeness heuristicWishful thinking

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Development
  • Developmental Psychology
  • Belief Formation

Background:

  • Wishful thinking, where desires influence beliefs, is a documented cognitive bias.
  • Understanding the emergence and developmental trajectory of wishful thinking in early childhood is crucial for cognitive science.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the presence and developmental characteristics of wishful thinking in preschoolers.
  • To explore whether explicit representation of outcomes affects wishful thinking in children.

Main Methods:

  • Seventy-seven preschoolers predicted which of two toy-containing eggs would be drawn eight times.
  • Predictions were analyzed across conditions where children could or could not keep the drawn egg's contents.
  • A subgroup of 5-year-olds' heuristic use was specifically examined.

Main Results:

  • Children were more likely to predict the desirable outcome (more toys) when they could keep the egg's contents.
  • This effect suggests wishful thinking, not effort, influenced their predictions.
  • A subgroup of 5-year-olds did not exhibit wishful thinking, instead using the representativeness heuristic.

Conclusions:

  • Preschoolers exhibit wishful thinking, demonstrating that desires can shape beliefs even in early development.
  • The ability to explicitly represent outcomes may inhibit wishful thinking, similar to adults' motivated reasoning.
  • Cognitive development influences heuristic use, with some children opting for logical reasoning over wishful thinking.