Modeling contact tracing in outbreaks with application to Ebola
Cameron Browne1, Hayriye Gulbudak2, Glenn Webb1
1Department of Mathematics, Vanderbilt University, United States.
Journal of Theoretical Biology
|August 23, 2015
Summary
Contact tracing is crucial for controlling Ebola outbreaks. This study models its impact on the effective reproduction number (Re), providing formulas to assess tracing effectiveness and epidemic status.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Infectious Disease Dynamics
Background:
- Contact tracing is a key strategy for managing Ebola epidemics.
- Modeling the population-level effects of contact tracing on disease dynamics is complex.
- Understanding the impact of tracing protocols on epidemic control is essential.
Purpose of the Study:
- To formulate and analyze a mechanistic SEIR model incorporating contact tracing for Ebola.
- To characterize how epidemiological factors and monitoring influence tracing efficacy.
- To derive formulas for the critical contact tracing proportion needed to control Ebola.
Main Methods:
- Developed a mechanistic SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model.
- Analyzed the model to determine the impact on the effective reproduction number (Re).
- Derived simplified formulas for critical tracing proportions under specific monitoring/reporting conditions.
Main Results:
- Ebola's effective reproduction number (Re) can be expressed using observable tracing and case reporting data.
- Identified key epidemiological properties (incubation, infectious periods, reporting) influencing tracing efficacy.
- Derived formulas for the critical proportion of contacts to trace for Re < 1.
Conclusions:
- Contact tracing is a quantifiable intervention impacting Ebola spread and providing epidemic insights.
- The derived formulas allow real-time estimation of Re and projection of control measure impacts.
- Model-based insights can inform real-time Ebola epidemic management using West Africa outbreak data.
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