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Sample size methods for estimating HIV incidence from cross-sectional surveys
Jacob Konikoff1, Ron Brookmeyer1
1Department of Biostatistics, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California 90095-1772, U.S.A.
Biometrics
|August 25, 2015
Summary
Accurate HIV incidence estimation requires precise sample size calculations for surveys. This study provides methods to determine sample sizes for cross-sectional surveys and detect changes in HIV incidence over time.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Biostatistics
Background:
- HIV incidence estimation is crucial for epidemic surveillance.
- Current methods may lack precision due to uncertainties in early infection stages.
Purpose of the Study:
- To derive sample size calculation methods for cross-sectional surveys to estimate HIV incidence.
- To develop methods for determining sample sizes to detect changes in HIV incidence between surveys.
Main Methods:
- Derivation of sample size formulas for cross-sectional surveys.
- Incorporation of uncertainty in early disease stage duration into sample size calculations.
- Evaluation of methods through simulations.
Main Results:
- The proposed methods provide precise HIV incidence estimates.
- Sample size calculations account for biomarker-defined early infection stages.
- Failure to account for duration uncertainty leads to imprecise estimates and underpowered studies.
Conclusions:
- Validated sample size methods improve the precision and power of HIV incidence estimation in surveys.
- These methods are applicable to diverse epidemic scenarios.
- R code is available for implementation.
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