Modelling the Future: System Dynamics in the Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma Care Pathway

Area of Science:

• Oncology
• Public Health
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Global incidence rates of cutaneous malignant melanoma are rising.
• Accurate future case estimations are crucial for healthcare planning.
• Melanoma prevention strategies require evaluation for maximum impact.

Purpose of the Study:

• To utilize system dynamics modeling for evaluating long-term effects of melanoma incidence, population growth, and preventive interventions.
• To forecast melanoma case numbers and assess the impact of different intervention scenarios.

Main Methods:

• System dynamics modeling was employed.
• Historical invasive melanoma data from Western Sweden (1990-2006) were used.
• Computer simulations projected cases for 2014-2023 under five scenarios.

Main Results:

• 'Improved overall secondary prevention' (reduced patient and doctor delays) showed significant impact.
• This scenario led to a 42% decrease in melanomas > 4 mm after 10 years.
• A 10% increase in melanomas ≤ 1 mm was observed, indicating earlier detection.

Conclusions:

• System dynamics modeling is effective for assessing public health interventions.
• Reducing patient and doctor delays is a key strategy for mitigating melanoma burden.
• Policymakers can use these insights to prioritize effective melanoma prevention efforts.