Increasing incidence of non-valvular atrial fibrillation in the UK from 2001 to 2013

Area of Science:

• Cardiology
• Epidemiology
• Public Health

Background:

• Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia with significant public health implications.
• Understanding trends in AF incidence is crucial for healthcare planning and resource allocation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the trends in the incidence of non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) in the United Kingdom between 2001 and 2013.
• To determine if AF incidence is static or increasing within the UK population.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) cohort, including individuals aged 45 years and older.
• Identified incident non-valvular AF cases from 2001 to 2013 and calculated standardized incidence rates.
• Analyzed incidence rates by age, sex, and ethnicity, and examined the primary diagnosis at hospital discharge.

Main Results:

• A cohort of 2.23 million individuals revealed 91,707 incident AF cases.
• The overall standardized AF incidence rate was 6.7 per 1000 person-years, increasing with age and higher in men.
• A modest increase in standardized AF incidence was observed from 2001 (5.9/1000) to 2013 (6.9/1000), primarily in individuals over 80.
• Incidence rates were highest in white patients (8.1/1000), followed by Asian (5.4/1000) and black patients (4.6/1000).

Conclusions:

• The incidence of AF in the UK has shown a gradual increase over the past decade.
• More than 200,000 first-ever non-valvular AF cases were anticipated in 2015.
• The observed increase is partly attributed to population aging, with a notable rise in elderly patients hospitalized for other conditions.