Age, Creatinine and Ejection Fraction Score in Brazil: Comparison with InsCor and the EuroSCORE
Omar Asdrúbal Vilca Mejía1, Bruna La Regina Matrangolo1, David Provenzale Titinger1
1Hospital das Clínicas, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
Insights
The Age, Creatinine and Ejection Fraction (ACEF) Score showed poor accuracy in predicting cardiac surgery mortality, unlike InsCor and EuroSCORE, in a Brazilian study.
Area of Science:
- Cardiovascular Surgery
- Medical Informatics
- Clinical Risk Stratification
Background:
- Cardiac surgery risk scores are crucial for patient management and outcomes.
- Neglecting accurate risk prediction can lead to suboptimal patient care.
- Evaluating existing and novel risk scores is essential in cardiovascular surgery.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the predictive performance of the Age, Creatinine and Ejection Fraction (ACEF) Score for mortality in patients undergoing elective coronary artery bypass graft and/or heart valve surgery.
- To compare the accuracy of the ACEF Score against established scores like InsCor and EuroSCORE.
- To determine the reliability of the ACEF Score in a Brazilian tertiary care setting.
Main Methods:
- A prospective cohort study involving 2,565 patients undergoing elective cardiac surgery.
- Assessment of the ACEF Score's predictive accuracy using correlation, calibration, and discrimination tests.
- Comparative analysis of ACEF Score performance against InsCor and EuroSCORE.
Main Results:
- The ACEF Score demonstrated inadequate calibration (p = 0.046) and questionable discrimination (AUC = 0.625).
- In contrast, InsCor (p = 0.460, AUC = 0.744) and EuroSCORE (p = 0.750, AUC = 0.763) showed adequate calibration and discrimination.
- Patient stratification revealed varying risk levels across all assessed models.
Conclusions:
- The ACEF Score, despite its simplicity, was found to be inaccurate for predicting mortality in elective cardiac surgery patients.
- InsCor and EuroSCORE exhibited superior accuracy and reliability compared to the ACEF Score in this cohort.
- Findings suggest that the ACEF Score may not be suitable for risk stratification in this specific patient population and setting.
Background:
Risk scores for cardiac surgery cannot continue to be neglected.
Objective:
To assess the performance of "Age, Creatinine and Ejection Fraction Score" (ACEF Score) to predict mortality in patients submitted to elective coronary artery bypass graft and/or heart valve surgery, and to compare it to other scores.
Methods:
A prospective cohort study was carried out with the database of a Brazilian tertiary care center. A total of 2,565 patients submitted to elective surgeries between May 2007 and July 2009 were assessed. For a more detailed analysis, the ACEF Score performance was compared to the InsCor's and EuroSCORE's performance through correlation, calibration and discrimination tests.
Results:
Patients were stratified into mild, moderate and severe for all models. Calibration was inadequate for ACEF Score (p = 0.046) and adequate for InsCor (p = 0.460) and EuroSCORE (p = 0.750). As for discrimination, the area under the ROC curve was questionable for the ACEF Score (0.625) and adequate for InsCor (0.744) and EuroSCORE (0.763).
Conclusion:
Although simple to use and practical, the ACEF Score, unlike InsCor and EuroSCORE, was not accurate for predicting mortality in patients submitted to elective coronary artery bypass graft and/or heart valve surgery in a Brazilian tertiary care center.
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