Targeted vaccination in healthy school children - Can primary school vaccination alone control influenza?

The UK commenced an extension to the seasonal influenza vaccination policy in autumn 2014 that will eventually see all healthy children between the ages of 2-16 years offered annual influenza vaccination. Models suggest that the new policy will be both highly effective at reducing the burden of influenza as well as cost-effective. We explore whether targeting vaccination at either primary or secondary schools would be more effective and/or cost-effective than the current strategy.

An age-structured deterministic transmission dynamic SEIR-type mathematical model was used to simulate a national influenza outbreak in England. Costs including GP consultations, hospitalisations due to influenza and vaccinations were compared to potential gains in quality-adjusted life years achieved through vaccinating healthy children. Costs and benefits of the new JCVI vaccination policy were estimated over a single season, and compared to the hypothesised new policies of targeted and heterogeneous vaccination.

All potential vaccination policies were highly cost-effective. Influenza transmission can be eliminated for a particular season by vaccinating both primary and secondary school children, but not by vaccinating only one group. The most cost-effective policy overall is heterogeneous vaccination coverage with 48% uptake in primary schools and 34% in secondary schools. The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation can consider a modification to their policy of offering seasonal influenza vaccinations to all healthy children of ages 2-16 years.