Age-related changes in the likelihood of major contributions

This article is concerned with the influence of age and research support on the frequency of technical innovation and economic growth. Based on the observations of Mumford and Gustafson, the authors argue that major contributions are derived from the creation of new understandings brought about by the integration and reorganization of existing understandings [1]. It is also argued that the creation of new understandings is most likely to occur in the earlier phases of people's careers when capable individuals are placed in an environment that will support innovative efforts. To examine these hypotheses and their broader economic implications, data were obtained from government sources describing the percentage of the population between the ages of twenty-five and forty-four, and between the ages of forty-five and sixty-four, as well as the percentage of the gross national product devoted to research and development efforts, the percentage of individual patents awarded, and deviations from long-term trends in the gross national product. These data were then analyzed in a time series analysis covering the period from 1929 to 1984. The results indicated that research support and age influenced the number of patents awarded which, in turn, influenced deviations in the gross national product. On the basis of these observations and the underlying theory, the authors conclude that substantially greater attention should be given to the development and maintenance of creative potential.