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Published on: December 11, 2016
Accuracy of annual prescription drug expenditure forecasts in AJHP
Patricia L Hartke1, Lee C Vermeulen1, James M Hoffman1
1Patricia L. Hartke, Pharm.D., is Postgraduate Year 2 Resident, University of Illinois at Chicago (UIC) and Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Chicago, IL; at the time of writing she was Postgraduate Year 1 Resident, Jesse Brown Veterans Affairs (VA) Medical Center, Chicago, IL. Lee C. Vermeulen, B.S.Pharm., M.S., FCCP, FFIP, is Director, Center for Clinical Knowledge Management, UW Health, Madison, WI, and Clinical Professor, School of Pharmacy, University of Wisconsin, Madison. James M. Hoffman, Pharm.D., M.S., BCPS, is Associate Member, Pharmaceutical Sciences, Medication Outcomes and Safety Officer, St. Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, TN, and Associate Professor of Clinical Pharmacy, University of Tennessee College of Pharmacy, Memphis. Nilay D. Shah, Ph.D., is Associate Professor of Health Services Research, Division of Health Care Policy and Research, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN. Fred Doloresco, Pharm.D., M.S., is Clinical Assistant Professor, Department of Pharmacy Practice, School of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, University at Buffalo, The State University of New York, Buffalo. Katie J. Suda, Pharm.D., M.S., is Research Health Scientist, Department of VA, Center of Innovation for Complex Chronic Healthcare, Edward Hines Jr. VA Hospital, Hines, IL, and Research Associate Professor, Department of Pharmacy Systems, Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, UIC. Edward C. Li, Pharm.D., BCOP, is Associate Professor, Department of Pharmacy Practice, College of Pharmacy, University of New England, Portland, ME. Linda M. Matusiak, B.A., is Senior Manager, Research Support; and Robert J. Hunkler, M.B.A., is Director, Professional Relations, IMS Health, Plymouth Meeting, PA. Glen T. Schumock, Pharm.D., M.B.A., Ph.D., FCCP, is Professor and Head, Department of Pharmacy Systems, Outcomes and Policy, College of Pharmacy, UIC.
Purpose:
The accuracy of the forecasts of drug expenditures in nonfederal hospitals and clinics published annually in the American Journal of Health-System Pharmacy (AJHP) relative to the accuracy of forecasts produced by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) was evaluated.
Methods:
AJHP-published forecasts of drug expenditure growth for nonfederal hospitals (for the years 2003 through 2013) and clinics (for the years 2004 through 2013) were compared with data on actual growth. Data on actual and projected growth published by CMS were analyzed for the years 2003 through 2012. The mean absolute error and directional accuracy of the forecasts published in AJHP for nonfederal hospitals and clinics and the CMS forecasts were determined and compared.
Results:
Actual spending growth was within the range of the forecast published in AJHP for 2 of 11 years for nonfederal hospitals and for 3 of 10 years for clinics; the forecasts for nonfederal hospitals and clinics were directionally accurate 27.3% and 60.0% of the time, respectively. The mean absolute errors of the AJHP-published drug expenditure forecasts for the nonfederal hospital and clinic sectors were 2.0 and 4.7 percentage points, respectively. The CMS forecasts of overall drug spending were directionally accurate 70% of the time, and the mean absolute error (2.2 percentage points) was not statistically different from that of either sector forecast published in AJHP.
Conclusion:
The annual drug expenditure forecasts published in AJHP have been reasonably accurate for predicting growth in prescription expenditures when compared with other available drug expenditure forecasts.
