Are Private Reserves Effective for Jaguar Conservation?

We present the first study of density and apparent survival for a jaguar (Panthera onca) population in northern Mexico using 13 years of camera trap data from 2000 to 2012. We used the Barker robust design model which combines data from closed sampling periods and resight data between these periods to estimate apparent survival and abundance. We identified 467 jaguar pictures that corresponded to 48 jaguar individuals. We included camera type and field technician as covariates for detection probabilities. We used three covariates to evaluate the effect of reserve on jaguar apparent survival: i) private reserve creation ii) later reserve expansions, and iii) cattle ranches' conservation activities. We found that the use of digital cameras in addition to film cameras increased detection probability by a factor of 6x compared with the use of only film cameras (p = 0.34 ± 0.05 and p = 0.05 ± 0.02 respectively) in the closed period and more than three times in the open period (R = 0.91 ± 0.08 and R = 0.30 ± 0.13 mixed and film cameras respectively). Our availability estimates showed no temporary emigration and a fidelity probability of 1. Despite an increase of apparent survival probability from 0.47 ± 0.15 to 0.56 ± 0.11 after 2007, no single covariate explained the change in these point estimates. Mean jaguar density was 1.87 ± 0.47 jaguars/100 km2. We found that 13 years of jaguar population monitoring with our sampling size were not enough for detecting changes in survival or density. Our results provide a baseline for studies evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas and the inclusion of ranch owners in jaguar conservation programs and long-term population viability.