Renal flare prediction and prognosis in lupus nephritis Hispanic patients

We performed a retrospective cohort analysis focusing on lupus nephritis renal flare incidence and outcome predictors. One hundred and eighteen patients with biopsy-proven lupus nephritis were segregated by induction/maintenance regimes. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients experiencing renal flare. Secondary assessment included doubling of serum creatinine and development of end-stage renal disease. After a median follow-up of 31 months (interquartile range 21-46) from the date of response to induction therapy, 47 patients (39.8%) developed a renal flare. Azathioprine-maintained patients had a higher risk of renal flare compared with mycophenolate mofetil-maintained patients (hazard ratio 2.53, 95% confidence interval 1.39-4.59, p < 0.01). Age (hazard ratio 0.96, 0.92-0.99, p = 0.03), serum creatinine at presentation (hazard ratio 1.76, 1.13-2.76, p = 0.01), complete remission after induction therapy (hazard ratio 0.28, 0.14-0.56, p < 0.001) and azathioprine maintenance therapy (hazard ratio 4.78, 2.16-10.6, p < 0.001) were associated with renal flare on multivariate analysis. Ten patients progressed to end-stage renal disease (8.5%) by a median 32.5 months. Age (hazard ratio 0.88, 0.77-0.99, p = 0.05), complete remission after induction therapy (hazard ratio 0.08, 0.01-0.94, p = 0.04) and severe nephritic flare (hazard ratio 13.6, 1.72-107.7, p = 0.01) were associated with end-stage renal disease development. Azathioprine maintenance therapy is associated with a higher incidence of relapse in the Mexican-mestizo population. Younger age and nephritic flares predict development of end-stage renal disease.