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Updated: Apr 1, 2026
Assessment of Child Anthropometry in a Large Epidemiologic Study
Published on: February 2, 2017
Childhood obesity as a predictor of morbidity in adulthood: a systematic review and meta-analysis
A Llewellyn1, M Simmonds1, C G Owen2
1Centre for Reviews and Dissemination, University of York, York, UK.
Insights
Childhood obesity moderately increases adult disease risk, but childhood BMI is a poor predictor of adult morbidities. Most adult obesity-related diseases occur in individuals who were healthy weight as children.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Pediatrics
Background:
- Childhood obesity is a growing concern, linked to adult obesity and increased morbidity.
- Adult obesity is a significant risk factor for various chronic diseases.
Purpose of the Study:
- To systematically review and meta-analyze the predictive ability of childhood body mass index (BMI) for adult obesity-related morbidities.
- To assess the accuracy of childhood BMI in identifying individuals at risk for future chronic diseases.
Main Methods:
- Systematic review and meta-analysis of 37 relevant studies.
- Analysis of associations between childhood BMI and adult morbidities like diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD), cancer, stroke, and hypertension.
Main Results:
- High childhood BMI showed increased adult incidence of diabetes (OR 1.70), CHD (OR 1.20), and some cancers.
- Childhood BMI demonstrated low accuracy in predicting adult morbidities; most cases occurred in those with healthy childhood weight.
- Only 31% of future diabetes and 22% of future hypertension and CHD occurred in overweight/obese children aged 12+.
Conclusions:
- Childhood obesity is associated with a moderately increased risk of adult obesity-related morbidity.
- Childhood BMI is not a sufficiently accurate predictor of adult morbidities due to the majority of cases arising in healthy-weight children.
- Targeting only overweight/obese children for obesity reduction may not significantly decrease the overall burden of adult obesity-related diseases.
Abstract:
Obese children are at higher risk of being obese as adults, and adult obesity is associated with an increased risk of morbidity. This systematic review and meta-analysis investigates the ability of childhood body mass index (BMI) to predict obesity-related morbidities in adulthood. Thirty-seven studies were included. High childhood BMI was associated with an increased incidence of adult diabetes (OR 1.70; 95% CI 1.30-2.22), coronary heart disease (CHD) (OR 1.20; 95% CI 1.10-1.31) and a range of cancers, but not stroke or breast cancer. The accuracy of childhood BMI when predicting any adult morbidity was low. Only 31% of future diabetes and 22% of future hypertension and CHD occurred in children aged 12 or over classified as being overweight or obese. Only 20% of all adult cancers occurred in children classified as being overweight or obese. Childhood obesity is associated with moderately increased risks of adult obesity-related morbidity, but the increase in risk is not large enough for childhood BMI to be a good predictor of the incidence of adult morbidities. This is because the majority of adult obesity-related morbidity occurs in adults who were of healthy weight in childhood. Therefore, targeting obesity reduction solely at obese or overweight children may not substantially reduce the overall burden of obesity-related disease in adulthood.
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