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A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion
James R Oakleaf1, Christina M Kennedy1, Sharon Baruch-Mordo1
1The Nature Conservancy, Development by Design Program, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America.
Plos One
|October 8, 2015
Summary
Human population growth will drive significant land conversion for urban, agricultural, and resource extraction. This development threatens 20% of remaining natural lands globally, impacting biodiversity and ecosystems.
Area of Science:
- Environmental science
- Conservation biology
- Spatial analysis
Background:
- Growing global population and affluence increase demand for resources.
- This demand accelerates habitat modification and land conversion globally.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected land development.
- To assess the cumulative impact of multiple development sectors on natural lands.
Main Methods:
- Spatial modeling of urban and agricultural expansion.
- Projection of energy (oil, gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels) and mining development.
- Aggregation of these threats to identify at-risk natural lands.
Main Results:
- Development threatens 20% of remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2).
- Half of the world's biomes could become >50% converted.
- Land conversion may double in South America and triple in Africa.
- Significant shifts predicted in South America, Africa, and North America.
Conclusions:
- Proactive mitigation of multi-sector development risk is critical.
- Only 5% of at-risk natural lands are under strict legal protection.
- Urgent action needed to curtail substantial loss of nature.
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