Integrating Multiple Evidence Sources to Predict Adverse Drug Reactions Based on a Systems Pharmacology Model

Identifying potential adverse drug reactions (ADRs) is critically important for drug discovery and public health. Here we developed a multiple evidence fusion (MEF) method for the large-scale prediction of drug ADRs that can handle both approved drugs and novel molecules. MEF is based on the similarity reference by collaborative filtering, and integrates multiple similarity measures from various data types, taking advantage of the complementarity in the data. We used MEF to integrate drug-related and ADR-related data from multiple levels, including the network structural data formed by known drug-ADR relationships for predicting likely unknown ADRs. On cross-validation, it obtains high sensitivity and specificity, substantially outperforming existing methods that utilize single or a few data types. We validated our prediction by their overlap with drug-ADR associations that are known in databases. The proposed computational method could be used for complementary hypothesis generation and rapid analysis of potential drug-ADR interactions.