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Empirical Estimation of R0 for Unknown Transmission Functions: The Case of Chronic Wasting Disease in Alberta
Alex Potapov1, Evelyn Merrill2, Margo Pybus3
1Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada; Centre for Mathematical Biology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada; Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada.
Abstract:
We consider the problem of estimating the basic reproduction number R0 from data on prevalence dynamics at the beginning of a disease outbreak. We derive discrete and continuous time models, some coefficients of which are to be fitted from data. We show that prevalence of the disease is sufficient to determine R0. We apply this method to chronic wasting disease spread in Alberta determining a range of possible R0 and their sensitivity to the probability of deer annual survival.
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