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Updated: Mar 31, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Is dispersal always beneficial to carrying capacity? New insights from the multi-patch logistic equation
Roger Arditi1, Claude Lobry2, Tewfik Sari3
1University of Fribourg, Department of Biology, Chemin du Musée 10, 1700 Fribourg, Switzerland; Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, Institute of Ecology and Environmental Sciences (iEES-Paris), 75252 Paris Cedex 5, France.
Abstract:
The standard model for the dynamics of a fragmented density-dependent population is built from several local logistic models coupled by migrations. First introduced in the 1970s and used in innumerable articles, this standard model applied to a two-patch situation has never been completely analysed. Here, we complete this analysis and we delineate the conditions under which fragmentation associated to dispersal is either beneficial or detrimental to total population abundance. Therefore, this is a contribution to the SLOSS question. Importantly, we also show that, depending on the underlying mechanism, there is no unique way to generalize the logistic model to a patchy situation. In many cases, the standard model is not the correct generalization. We analyse several alternative models and compare their predictions. Finally, we emphasize the shortcomings of the logistic model when written in the r-K parameterization and we explain why Verhulst's original polynomial expression is to be preferred.
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