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Uncertainty in Population Estimates for Endangered Animals and Improving the Recovery Process.

Aaron M Haines1, Matthew Zak2, Katie Hammond3

  • 1Applied Conservation Lab, Department of Biology, Millersville University, Millersville, PA 17551, USA. Aaron.Haines@millersville.edu.

Animals : an Open Access Journal From MDPI
|October 20, 2015
PubMed
Summary

Most US endangered species recovery plans lack population size uncertainty. Recent plans and those for birds/mammals are better, but improvements are needed for effective species recovery and delisting.

Keywords:
The objective of our study was to evaluate the mention of uncertainty (i.e., variance) associated with population size estimates within U.S. recovery plans for endangered animals. To do this we reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial

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Area of Science:

  • Conservation Biology
  • Wildlife Management
  • Ecology

Background:

  • Endangered Species Act recovery plans are crucial for species conservation in the US.
  • These plans aim to provide biological information and recovery criteria for listed species.
  • Evaluating the quantitative rigor of these plans is essential for effective conservation outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the inclusion of population size uncertainty in US recovery plans for endangered terrestrial vertebrates.
  • To determine the frequency of population size estimates and recovery criteria within these plans.
  • To identify trends in reporting quantitative data over time and across taxa.

Main Methods:

  • Systematic review of finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species.
  • Data extraction on the presence of current population size estimates.
  • Data extraction on the inclusion of variance or uncertainty measures for population estimates.
  • Data extraction on population size as a recovery criterion.

Main Results:

  • 59% of recovery plans included a current population size estimate.
  • Only 14.5% of plans provided a measure of uncertainty for population size.
  • 43% specified population size as a recovery criterion.
  • More recent plans and those for birds/mammals reported quantitative data more frequently than older plans or those for reptiles/amphibians.

Conclusions:

  • US recovery plans often lack essential quantitative data, particularly population size uncertainty.
  • Improvements in reporting uncertainty are needed for robust species recovery and informed delisting decisions.
  • Incentivizing public involvement can enhance access to and utilization of quantitative data in recovery planning.