One-hour plasma glucose as a predictor of the development of Type 2 diabetes in Japanese adults

To test the hypothesis that 1-h plasma glucose in an oral glucose tolerance test is a better predictor of the development of diabetes than 2-h plasma glucose, independently of indices of insulin secretion or action in Japanese adults.

A historical cohort study was conducted in 1445 Japanese workers who did not have diabetes. The association between 1-h plasma glucose and the development of Type 2 diabetes was analysed.

Overall, 95 of the study participants developed Type 2 diabetes during a mean follow-up of 4.5 years. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for 1-h plasma glucose for future diabetes [0.88 (95% CI 0.84-0.91)] was greater than that for 2-h plasma glucose [0.79 (95% CI 0.74-0.84)], and for insulinogenic [0.73 (95% CI 0.68-0.78)] and disposition indices [0.79 (95% CI 0.74-0.84); P < 0.05]. Compared with the first quartile, the hazard ratio for future diabetes in the fourth quartile of 1-h plasma glucose was 42.5 [95% CI 5.7-315.2 (P < 0.05)] and the hazard ratio in the fourth quartile of 2-h plasma glucose was 4.4 [95% CI 1.8-10.8 (P < 0.05)], after adjustments for covariates including fasting plasma glucose. The significance of the elevated hazard ratio in the fourth quartile of 1-h plasma glucose was maintained after adjustments for 2-h plasma glucose, insulinogenic index or disposition index, whereas the elevation of the hazard ratio in the fourth quartile of 2-h plasma glucose was diminished and was no longer significant after adjustments for 1-h plasma glucose.

One-hour plasma glucose had a greater association with the future development of Type 2 diabetes than did 2-h plasma glucose, independently of oral glucose tolerance test-derived indices of insulin action in a Japanese population.