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Does Television Viewership Predict Presidential Election Outcomes?

Arash Barfar1, Balaji Padmanabhan1

  • 1Information Systems and Decision Sciences Department, Muma College of Business, University of South Florida , Tampa, Florida.

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Summary

Big data analytics can forecast United States presidential election outcomes using television viewership data. Models trained on "safe" states can predict results in "swing" states, optimizing campaign advertising strategies.

Keywords:
U.S. presidential electionbig data analyticsdata acquisition and cleansingelection forecasting modelsmedia analyticspredictive analytics

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Area of Science:

  • Computational Social Science
  • Political Science
  • Data Science

Background:

  • Traditional election forecasting faces challenges with data availability and timely insights.
  • The increasing volume of big data offers new avenues for predictive modeling in political science.
  • Television viewership data presents a novel, yet underutilized, resource for election analysis.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To explore the potential of using television viewership data for forecasting United States presidential election outcomes.
  • To develop and evaluate models capable of predicting election results at state and county levels.
  • To demonstrate a method for training predictive models using data from "safe" states to forecast outcomes in "swing" states.

Main Methods:

  • Developing predictive models based on television viewership data.
  • Utilizing data from "safe" states to train models for forecasting "swing" states.
  • Analyzing the correlation between viewership patterns and election results.

Main Results:

  • Television viewership data shows significant potential for forecasting presidential election outcomes.
  • Models trained on viewership data can accurately predict results in both state and county levels.
  • A novel approach using "safe" state data effectively forecasts outcomes in competitive "swing" states.

Conclusions:

  • Big data analytics, specifically television viewership, offers a powerful tool for election forecasting.
  • These models can enhance the efficiency of political campaigns by optimizing advertising spend.
  • Future research should focus on refining these models and exploring additional data sources for even greater accuracy.