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[Diagnostics of Regional Healthcare Management System in Russia Basing on Modeling and Forecasting of Health and
Background:
Justification of the study direction of public health improving is quite general. But the identification of the most effective indicators of the healthcare system improvement remains unexplored.
Objective:
Our aim was to determine the interaction between the basic demographic indicators of the region (Smolensk region) and efficacy endpoints of the Healthcare management identified in the study.
Methods:
The study reviewed the demographic changes of the Smolensk region at present and the forecast for 2015, 2016, 2017. The forecast of demographic and health indicators was based on exponential smoothing models and autoregressive model.
Results:
The study identified the most appropriate medical and demographic indicators. 1) The ratio of physicians (per 10,000 people in population, the rate maximum was 62 in 2004, in 2015 this figure has fallen to 52, and it is supposed to decrease to 49 by 2017). 2) The overall mortality rate (per 1000 people in population). Reduction of the resident population of the Smolensk region is 8.2 thousand people in annual average. This fact shows a stable depopulation of the region. 3) The average load on the ambulance. It has been found that the increase and decrease of these parameters directly affect the population rate.
Conclusion:
The study revealed a stable downtrend of average resident population number which confirms the long regional depopulation. It is associated in particular with the lack of stimulation of the health and demographic indicators' increase including but not limited to inefficient healthcare management arrangements.
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