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Preference reversal in quantum decision theory.

Vyacheslav I Yukalov1, Didier Sornette2

  • 1Department of Management, Technology and Economics, ETH Zürich Zürich, Switzerland ; Bogolubov Laboratory of Theoretical Physics, Joint Institute for Nuclear Research Dubna, Russia.

Frontiers in Psychology
|October 27, 2015
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Quantum decision theory explains preference reversal, a psychological phenomenon where choices differ from evaluations. Attraction factors in quantum probabilities account for this bias in decision-making.

Keywords:
behavioral quantum probabilitydecision theoryplanning paradoxpreference reversaluncertainty

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Area of Science:

  • Decision Sciences
  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Quantum Theory

Background:

  • Preference reversal is a well-documented psychological phenomenon where individuals' choices between options differ from their valuations of those same options.
  • Existing models struggle to fully explain the systematic nature of preference reversal, particularly the influence of context (choosing vs. pricing).

Purpose of the Study:

  • To provide a natural explanation for preference reversal using quantum decision theory.
  • To identify the specific mechanisms within quantum decision theory that account for the observed biases in decision-making.

Main Methods:

  • Applying quantum decision theory to model decision-making processes involving lotteries with non-negative payoffs.
  • Introducing and analyzing the role of 'attraction factors' in quantum probability calculations.
  • Deriving a quantitative criterion for preference reversal based on utility factors and attraction factors.

Main Results:

  • Quantum decision theory, incorporating attraction factors, successfully explains preference reversal.
  • Attraction factors account for why individuals prefer a certain lottery when choosing but assign it a higher price when evaluating.
  • A derived quantitative criterion for preference reversal was successfully tested against experimental data.

Conclusions:

  • Quantum decision theory offers a robust framework for understanding preference reversal.
  • The presence of attraction factors is crucial for explaining context-dependent biases in decision-making.
  • The planning paradox can be conceptualized as a form of preference reversal within this framework.