Acute heart failure in the emergency department: a follow-up study

Acute heart failure (AHF) is a major public health issue due to high incidence and poor prognosis. Only a few studies are available on the long-term prognosis and on outcome predictors in the unselected population attending the emergency department (ED) for AHF. We carried out a 1-year follow-up analysis of 1234 consecutive patients from selected Italian EDs from January 2011 to June 2012 for an episode of AHF. Their prognosis and outcome-associated factors were tested by Cox proportional hazard model. Patients' mean age was 84, with 66.0% over 80 years and 56.2% females. Comorbidities were present in over 50% of cases, principally a history of acute coronary syndrome, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, valvular heart disease. Death occurred within 6 h in 24 cases (1.9%). At 30-day follow-up, death was registered in 123 cases (10.0%): 110 cases (89.4%) died of cardiovascular events and 13 (10.6%) of non-cardiovascular causes (cancer, gastrointestinal hemorrhages, sepsis, trauma). At 1-year follow-up, all-cause death was recorded in 50.1% (over 3 out of 4 cases for cardiovascular origin). Six variables (older age, diabetes, systolic arterial pressure <110 mm/Hg, high NT pro-BNP, high troponin levels and impaired cognitive status) were selected as outcome predictors, but with limited discriminant capacity (AUC = 0.649; SE 0.015). Recurrence of AHF was registered in 31.0%. The study identifies a cluster of variables associated with 1-year mortality in AHF, but their predictive capacity is low. Old age and the presence of comorbidities, in particular diabetes are likely to play a major role in dictating the prognosis.