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Pediatric Orthopaedic Workforce in 2014: Current Workforce and Projections for the Future
Jeffrey R Sawyer1, Kerwyn C Jones, Lawson A Copley
1*Department of Orthopaedic Surgery & Biomedical Engineering, University of Tennessee-Campbell Clinic, Memphis, TN †Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Akron Children's Hospital §Akron Children's Hospital, Akron, OH ‡Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, University of Texas Southwestern, Dallas, TX.
Insights
The supply of pediatric orthopaedic surgeons has increased, potentially balancing the number of experienced surgeons retiring soon. Future demand is expected to remain stable, with continued expansion in the scope of practice for these specialists.
Area of Science:
- Health Services Research
- Orthopaedic Surgery
- Workforce Analysis
Background:
- The US healthcare system's evolution sparks debate on physician supply, particularly for surgeons.
- Key questions address current surgeon adequacy and future training numbers to meet demand.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the current pediatric orthopaedic workforce.
- To assess present and future supply and demand dynamics for pediatric orthopaedic surgeons.
Main Methods:
- Searched databases (POSNA, SF Match, KID, MGMA) for workforce and demand data.
- Utilized Level II economic and decision analysis.
Main Results:
- Active Pediatric Orthopaedic Society of North America (POSNA) members increased by 155% (1993-2014), correlating with population density.
- Pediatric discharge numbers remained stable (1997-2012).
- Graduating pediatric orthopaedic fellows increased by 29% (2003-2013), peaking in 2009.
Conclusions:
- Increased POS supply may offset upcoming retirements.
- Macroeconomic factors suggest stable future demand for physician services.
- Continued expansion in the scope of practice for pediatric orthopaedic surgeons is anticipated.
Background:
The changing nature of the United States (US) health care system has prompted debate concerning the physician supply. The basic questions are: do we have an adequate number of surgeons to meet current demands and are we training the correct number of surgeons to meet future demands? The purpose of this analysis was to characterize the current pediatric orthopaedic workforce in terms of supply and demand, both present and future.
Methods:
Databases were searched (POSNA, SF Match, KID, MGMA) to determine the current pediatric orthopaedic workforce and workforce distribution, as well as pediatric orthopaedic demand.
Results:
The number of active Pediatric Orthopaedic Society of North America (POSNA) members increased over the past 20 years, from 410 in 1993 to 653 in 2014 (155% increase); however, the density of POSNA members is not equally distributed, but correlates to population density. The number of estimated pediatric discharges, orthopaedic and nonorthopaedic, has remained relatively stable from 6,348,537 in 1997 to 5,850,184 in 2012. Between 2003 and 2013, the number of pediatric orthopaedic fellows graduating from Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education and non-Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education programs increased from 39 to 50 (29%), with a peak of 67 fellows (71%) in 2009.
Discussion:
Although predicting the exact need for pediatric orthopaedic surgeons (POS) is impossible because of the complex interplay among macroeconomic, governmental, insurance, and local factors, some trends were identified: the supply of POS has increased, which may offset the expected numbers of experienced surgeons who will be leaving the workforce in the next 10 to 15 years; macroeconomic factors influencing demand for physician services, driven by gross domestic product and population growth, are expected to be stable in the near future; expansion of the scope of practice for POS is expected to continue; and further similar assessments are warranted.
Level Of Evidence:
Level II-economic and decision analysis.
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