Mapping landscape friction to locate isolated tsetse populations that are candidates for elimination

Tsetse flies are the cyclical vectors of deadly human and animal trypanosomes in sub-Saharan Africa. Tsetse control is a key component for the integrated management of both plagues, but local eradication successes have been limited to less than 2% of the infested area. This is attributed to either resurgence of residual populations that were omitted from the eradication campaign or reinvasion from neighboring infested areas. Here we focused on Glossina palpalis gambiensis, a riverine tsetse species representing the main vector of trypanosomoses in West Africa. We mapped landscape resistance to tsetse genetic flow, hereafter referred to as friction, to identify natural barriers that isolate tsetse populations. For this purpose, we fitted a statistical model of the genetic distance between 37 tsetse populations sampled in the region, using a set of remotely sensed environmental data as predictors. The least-cost path between these populations was then estimated using the predicted friction map. The method enabled us to avoid the subjectivity inherent in the expert-based weighting of environmental parameters. Finally, we identified potentially isolated clusters of G. p. gambiensis habitat based on a species distribution model and ranked them according to their predicted genetic distance to the main tsetse population. The methodology presented here will inform the choice on the most appropriate intervention strategies to be implemented against tsetse flies in different parts of Africa. It can also be used to control other pests and to support conservation of endangered species.