Meeting demand for family planning within a generation: prospects and implications at country level

In order to track progress towards the target of universal access to sexual and reproductive health care services of the post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), a measure (demand for family planning satisfied with modern contraceptive methods) and a benchmark (at least 75% by 2030 in all countries) have been recommended.

The goal of this study was to assess the prospects of reaching the benchmark at the country level. Such information can facilitate strategic planning, including resource allocation at global and country levels.

We selected 63 countries based on their status as least developed according to the United Nations or as a priority country in global family planning initiatives. Using United Nations estimates and projections of family planning indicators between 1970 and 2030, we calculated percent demand for family planning satisfied with modern contraceptive methods for each year and country. We then calculated the annual percentage point changes between 2014 and 2030 required to meet the benchmark. The required rates of change were compared to current projections as well as estimates between 1970 and 2010.

To reach the benchmark on average across the 63 countries, demand satisfied with modern methods must increase by 2.2 percentage points per year between 2014 and 2030 - more than double current projections. Between 1970 and 2010, such rapid progress was observed in 24 study countries but typically spanning 5-10 years. At currently projected rates, only 9 of the 63 study countries will reach the benchmark. Meanwhile, the gap between projected and required changes is largest in the Central and West African regions, 0.9 and 3.0 percentage points per year, respectively. If the benchmark is achieved, 334 million women across the study countries will use a modern contraceptive method in 2030, compared to 226 million women in 2014.

In order to achieve the component of the SDGs calling for universal access to sexual and reproductive health services, substantial effort is needed to accelerate rates of progress by a factor of 2 in most study countries and by a factor of 3 in Central and West African countries.