A validated web-based tool to display individualised Crohn's disease predicted outcomes based on clinical, serologic
C A Siegel1,2, H Horton3, L S Siegel4,5
1Dartmouth-Hitchcock Inflammatory Bowel Disease Center, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, NH, USA.
Background:
Early treatment for Crohn's disease (CD) with immunomodulators and/or anti-TNF agents improves outcomes in comparison to a slower 'step up' algorithm. However, there remains a limited ability to identify those who would benefit most from early intensive therapy.
Aim:
To develop a validated, individualised, web-based tool for patients and clinicians to visualise individualised risks for developing Crohn's disease complications.
Methods:
A well-characterised cohort of adult patients with CD was analysed. Available data included: demographics; clinical characteristics; serologic immune responses; NOD2 status; time from diagnosis to complication; and medication exposure. Cox proportional analyses were performed to model the probability of developing a CD complication over time. The Cox model was validated externally in two independent CD cohorts. Using system dynamics analysis (SDA), these results were transformed into a simple graphical web-based display to show patients their individualised probability of developing a complication over a 3-year period.
Results:
Two hundered and forty three CD patients were included in the final model of which 142 experienced a complication. Significant variables in the multivariate Cox model included small bowel disease (HR 2.12, CI 1.05-4.29), left colonic disease (HR 0.73, CI 0.49-1.09), perianal disease (HR 4.12, CI 1.01-16.88), ASCA (HR 1.35, CI 1.16-1.58), Cbir (HR 1.29, CI 1.07-1.55), ANCA (HR 0.77, CI 0.62-0.95), and the NOD2 frameshift mutation/SNP13 (HR 2.13, CI 1.33-3.40). The Harrell's C (concordance index for predictive accuracy of the model) = 0.73. When applied to the two external validation cohorts (adult n = 109, pediatric n = 392), the concordance index was 0.73 and 0.75, respectively, for adult and pediatric patients.
Conclusions:
A validated, web-based tool has been developed to display an individualised predicted outcome for adult patients with Crohn's disease based on clinical, serologic and genetic variables. This tool can be used to help providers and patients make personalised decisions about treatment options.
More Related Videos
06:46Competing-Risk Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival in Multiple Primary Colorectal Cancer Patients after Surgery
Published on: September 27, 2024
09:44Evaluating Therapeutic Interventions in the SHIP-deficient Mouse Model of Crohn Disease-like Ileitis and Fibrosis
Published on: October 14, 2025
Related Concept Videos
01:30Inflammatory Bowel Disease II: Crohn's Disease
Inflammatory bowel disease, commonly known as IBD, refers to a collection of disorders that lead to persistent inflammation of the gastrointestinal tract. The two types of IBD are ulcerative colitis, which impacts the colon, and Crohn's disease, which can involve any part of the gastrointestinal segment.
Crohn's disease
Crohn's disease is a chronic, systemic inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) that predominantly affects the gastrointestinal tract. It is marked by...
01:30Inflammatory Bowel Disease III: Diagnostic Studies and Management I-Nutritional Therapy
Diagnostic studies
A colonoscopy is the definitive screening test, distinguishing ulcerative colitis from other colon diseases with similar symptoms. During a colonoscopy test, inflamed mucosa with exudate ulcerations can be observed, and biopsies are taken to determine the histologic characteristics of the...
01:29Drugs for Treatment of Crohn's Disease in IBD Using Immunomodulatory Agents
01:21Drugs for Treatment of Crohn's Disease in IBD Using Glucocorticoids
01:12Statistical Software for Data Analysis and Clinical Trials
01:21Cancer Survival Analysis