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Potential sea-level rise from Antarctic ice-sheet instability constrained by observations
Catherine Ritz1,2, Tamsin L Edwards3,4, Gaël Durand1,2
1CNRS, LGGE, F-38041 Grenoble, France.
Nature
|November 19, 2015
Summary
Marine-ice-sheet instability (MISI) in Antarctica could cause significant sea-level rise. This study projects up to 30 cm by 2100 and 72 cm by 2200, challenging higher estimates.
Area of Science:
- Glaciology
- Climate Science
- Oceanography
Background:
- Antarctic ice sheet instability, particularly marine-ice-sheet instability (MISI), poses a significant threat to global sea levels.
- The Amundsen Sea embayment (ASE) is a critical region with substantial ice volume, showing signs of MISI.
- Accurate projections of ice sheet contributions to sea-level rise are crucial for climate change adaptation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project the potential contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global sea-level rise by 2100 and 2200.
- To assess the uncertainty and probability distributions of these sea-level contributions.
- To evaluate the plausibility of upper-bound sea-level rise estimates from existing models.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a process-based, statistical modeling approach to simulate ice sheet dynamics.
- Incorporated assessments of MISI risk based on projected triggers under the A1B climate scenario.
- Calibrated models using observed ice loss in the Amundsen Sea embayment.
Main Results:
- Projected Antarctic ice sheet contribution of up to 30 cm sea-level equivalent by 2100 and 72 cm by 2200 (95% quantiles).
- Identified complex, skewed probability distributions for sea-level contributions, with modes at 10 cm for 2100 and 49 cm/6 cm for 2200.
- Found that physical constraints and model calibration limit the maximum plausible sea-level contribution, rendering some higher estimates implausible.
Conclusions:
- The Antarctic ice sheet's contribution to sea-level rise is substantial but likely within the projected ranges, not exceeding higher speculative estimates.
- Uncertainty in basal friction significantly influences projections, with nonlinear relationships favoring higher contributions.
- Current understanding of physical mechanisms and triggers suggests that extreme sea-level rise scenarios from MISI may be less likely.
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