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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
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Evolution of strategic risks under future scenarios for improved utility master plans
Ana Luís1, Fiona Lickorish2, Simon Pollard2
1EPAL, SA, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres, Av. Liberdade, 24, 1250-144 Lisboa, Portugal.
Water Research
|November 20, 2015
Summary
This study integrates scenario planning and risk management for long-term water utility strategy. It helps identify future threats and opportunities for water resource management and corporate objectives.
Area of Science:
- Water resource management
- Strategic risk assessment
- Futures studies
Background:
- Integrated, long-term risk management in the water sector is underdeveloped.
- Scenario planning often lacks linkage to risk management due to unaccounted long-term impacts.
- Existing analyses frequently overlook the likelihood of long-term impacts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To apply the morphological approach for scenario development in the water sector.
- To evolve a baseline portfolio of strategic risks for a case study utility (EPAL).
- To integrate futures methods with risk assessment for strategic planning.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the morphological approach for scenario development.
- Developed three future scenarios: 'water scarcity', 'financial resource scarcity', and 'strong economic growth'.
- Validated scenarios through expert workshops, considering drivers like climate, demographics, economics, regulation, and technology.
Main Results:
- Evolved a baseline portfolio of strategic risks for Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres (EPAL).
- Projected risk development over a 30-year period under different future scenarios.
- Identified potential threats and opportunities for the water utility.
Conclusions:
- This research pioneers the combined use of risk and futures methods for strategic risk portfolios in the water utility sector.
- The approach enables proactive strategy development for long-term master plans.
- Enhanced long-term risk management can improve water sector resilience and objective achievement.
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