Northwestern Pacific typhoon intensity controlled by changes in ocean temperatures

Area of Science:

• Climatology
• Oceanography
• Meteorology

Background:

• Typhoon intensity is influenced by various climatic factors.
• Understanding these factors is crucial for predicting future storm behavior.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify the dominant climatic factors controlling typhoon lifetime peak intensity.
• To analyze the impact of ocean temperatures on typhoon intensification.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of six decades of Pacific typhoon data.
• Correlation of typhoon intensity with upper ocean and sea surface temperatures.

Main Results:

• Upper ocean temperatures in the low-latitude northwestern Pacific (LLNWP) control typhoon intensification rates.
• Sea surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific influence intensification duration.
• Recent LLNWP warming has increased average typhoon intensity.

Conclusions:

• LLNWP upper ocean warming is a key driver of increased typhoon intensity.
• Continued warming under climate change scenarios like RCP 4.5 will further intensify typhoons.
• Projected increase in average typhoon intensity by 14% by 2100.