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Mortality Patterns of Hydro-Geomorphologic Disasters.

S Pereira1, J L Zêzere1, I Quaresma1

  • 1Centre for Geographical Studies, Institute of Geography and Spatial Planning, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
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Summary

Hydro-geomorphologic disasters like floods and landslides in Portugal from 1865-2010 caused 1,248 fatalities. Analysis revealed peak mortality between 1935-1969, with floods causing more deaths overall but landslides being more frequent in certain regions.

Keywords:
DISASTER databasePortugalfloodslandslidesmortality

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Geosciences
  • Sociology

Background:

  • Hydro-geomorphologic disasters, including floods and landslides, have significant social impacts.
  • Historical data on these events in Portugal between 1865 and 2010 is crucial for understanding risk.
  • The DISASTER database compiles 1,902 such cases, resulting in 1,248 documented fatalities.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the frequency, temporal evolution, and spatio-temporal distribution of fatalities from floods and landslides in Portugal.
  • To identify the most lethal types of floods and landslides and examine gender-based mortality trends.
  • To evaluate individual and societal risks associated with these hydro-geomorphologic events.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the DISASTER database, containing 1,902 hydro-geomorphologic cases from 1865-2010.
  • Performed frequency and temporal evolution analysis of fatal floods and landslides.
  • Analyzed spatio-temporal distribution of fatalities, types of events, and gender tendencies.

Main Results:

  • The period 1935-1969 saw the highest incidence of flood and landslide cases and related mortalities.
  • Floods caused 81% of fatalities, with flash floods being the deadliest type; landslides accounted for 19%, with falls and flows being most fatal.
  • Males exhibited a higher frequency of fatalities, predominantly in rural areas for both event types.

Conclusions:

  • Hydro-geomorphologic events in Portugal have shown a decreasing mortality trend after 1969, though landslide fatalities remained significant.
  • Flood fatalities were widespread, with notable clusters in Lisbon and the Tagus valley; landslide fatalities were concentrated north of the Tagus valley.
  • Understanding the specific characteristics of flood and landslide fatalities is essential for targeted risk mitigation and societal safety.