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Towards a Hybrid Agent-based Model for Mosquito Borne Disease
S M Mniszewski1, C A Manore2, C Bryan3
1Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545.
Summer Computer Simulation Conference : (SCSC 2014) : 2014 Summer Simulation Multi-Conference : Monterey, California, USA, 6-10 July 2014. Summer Computer Simulation Conference (2014 : Monterey, Calif.)
|December 1, 2015
Summary
This study introduces a novel hybrid network-patch model to simulate mosquito-borne pathogen spread. The model enhances disease modeling by integrating mosquito dynamics with human population simulations for public health insights.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Computational Biology
- Public Health
Background:
- Agent-based models (ABM) like EpiSimS simulate infectious disease spread using detailed human movement and demographics.
- Re-emerging mosquito-borne diseases such as chikungunya and dengue fever necessitate advanced simulation tools.
- Existing ABMs lack integrated mosquito dynamics crucial for vector-borne disease modeling.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a hybrid network-patch model for simulating mosquito-borne pathogen transmission.
- To couple a mosquito dynamics model with an existing agent-based human simulation system (EpiSimS).
- To explore the impact of various parameters on disease spread patterns.
Main Methods:
- Coupled a network-patch model for mosquito dynamics with the Epidemic Simulation System (EpiSimS).
- Represented mosquitoes as 'patches' at locations, each with an ordinary differential equation (ODE) model.
- Incorporated location-specific mosquito parameters and varying exposure levels (indoor/outdoor).
Main Results:
- Successfully simulated chikungunya spread in Washington, DC, as a proof of concept.
- Demonstrated the model's ability to analyze disease spread under different transmission probabilities, mosquito counts, and activity exposures.
- Utilized visualization techniques to understand disease spread patterns.
Conclusions:
- The hybrid network-patch model provides a robust framework for simulating vector-borne diseases.
- This approach can inform public health strategies for managing mosquito-borne illnesses.
- Further research can refine parameters and explore interventions for diseases like dengue and chikungunya.
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