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The Event: An Underexamined Risk Concept.

Ted W Yellman1

  • 1tedwyellman@gmail.com.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|December 2, 2015
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

The term "event" in risk assessment is often poorly defined. This study advocates for linguistic definitions, emphasizing natural language over narrow mathematical concepts for accurate risk analysis.

Keywords:
Eventevent assertionevent typeoutcomesample pointsample space

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Area of Science:

  • Risk Management and Analysis
  • Probability Theory
  • Linguistics

Background:

  • Ambiguity in risk assessment terminology, particularly the term 'event,' hinders effective risk management.
  • Existing textbook definitions of 'event' are often contradictory or misleading.
  • Current mathematical definitions of 'event' are too narrow for practical risk assessment applications.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To critique current definitions of 'event' in risk assessment literature.
  • To explore the concept of 'event' within probability axioms and contemporary textbooks.
  • To propose and advocate for linguistic definitions of 'event' in risk analysis.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of contemporary risk assessment and probability textbooks.
  • Examination of A. N. Kolmogorov's probability axioms.
  • Comparative analysis of mathematical versus linguistic definitions of 'event'.

Main Results:

  • Identified significant inconsistencies and limitations in current textbook definitions of 'event.'
  • Found mathematical definitions of 'event' to be inadequate for real-world risk assessment contexts.
  • Demonstrated the prevalence and practical utility of linguistic definitions in actual risk analysis.

Conclusions:

  • Current mathematical definitions of 'event' are insufficient for robust risk assessment.
  • Linguistic definitions, rooted in natural language, represent the de facto standard for defining events in risk analysis.
  • Adopting linguistic definitions will improve clarity and consistency in risk assessment and management.