Prospective scenarios: a method of evaluating new decision tools

Prospective randomized controlled trials are rarely suitable for the evaluation of new decision making techniques. An approach is described in which a cohort of patients is taken down the usual study pathway to the point at which the new technique would be used. Conventional decision rules are then applied and the results recorded. The new technique is then deployed and the cohort reclassified. The logical and statistical justification for this approach is outlined. More rapid (although possibly less pure) analysis of the effect of the new technique is achieved.