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Mortality risks during extreme temperature events (ETEs) using a distributed lag non-linear model.

Michael J Allen1, Scott C Sheridan2

  • 1Department of Political Science and Geography, Old Dominion University, 7042 Batten Arts and Letters, Norfolk, VA, 23529, USA. mallen@odu.edu.

International Journal of Biometeorology
|December 10, 2015
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Extreme temperature events (ETEs) significantly impact all-cause mortality. Both heat and cold ETEs pose risks, with duration, season, and location influencing outcomes. Extreme thresholds heighten mortality risk.

Keywords:
Cold spellDistributed lag non-linear modelExtreme temperature eventsHeat waveMortality

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Health
  • Epidemiology
  • Climate Science

Background:

  • Extreme temperature events (ETEs) are increasing globally.
  • Understanding the mortality risks associated with ETEs is crucial for public health.
  • Previous research has explored temperature-mortality relationships, but nuances of ETEs require further investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the association between all-cause mortality and extreme heat and cold events in 50 U.S. locations.
  • To examine how seasonality, duration, and geographical variability modify the mortality risk from ETEs.
  • To assess the impact of extreme versus non-extreme temperature thresholds on mortality outcomes.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized daily mean apparent temperature data from 1975 to 2004 for 50 U.S. locations.
  • Defined extreme heat days (97.5th percentile) and heat days (95th percentile), and extreme cold days (2.5th percentile) and cold days (5th percentile) based on location-specific thresholds.
  • Employed a distributed lag non-linear model to assess mortality risk over a 14-day cumulative period post-exposure, analyzing seasonal and duration effects.

Main Results:

  • Longer-lasting heat days and early-season heat events were associated with elevated mortality.
  • Cold-related mortality risk was highest in southern U.S. locations, particularly during early cold events and short cold episodes.
  • Mortality risk increased with the extremity of temperature thresholds for both heat and cold events.

Conclusions:

  • Both extreme heat and cold events pose significant risks to all-cause mortality.
  • The impact of ETEs on mortality is modulated by season, event duration, geographical location, and acclimatization.
  • Findings highlight the importance of considering ETEs in public health preparedness and adaptation strategies.