Identical twins in forensic genetics - Epidemiology and risk based estimation of weight of evidence

The increase in the number of forensic genetic loci used for identification purposes results in infinitesimal random match probabilities. These probabilities are computed under assumptions made for rather simple population genetic models. Often, the forensic expert reports likelihood ratios, where the alternative hypothesis is assumed not to encompass close relatives. However, this approach implies that important factors present in real human populations are discarded. This approach may be very unfavourable to the defendant. In this paper, we discuss some important aspects concerning the closest familial relationship, i.e., identical (monozygotic) twins, when reporting the weight of evidence. This can be done even when the suspect has no knowledge of an identical twin or when official records hold no twin information about the suspect. The derived expressions are not original as several authors previously have published results accounting for close familial relationships. However, we revisit the discussion to increase the awareness among forensic genetic practitioners and include new information on medical and societal factors to assess the risk of not considering a monozygotic twin as the true perpetrator. If accounting for a monozygotic twin in the weight of evidence, it implies that the likelihood ratio is truncated at a maximal value depending on the prevalence of monozygotic twins and the societal efficiency of recognising a monozygotic twin. If a monozygotic twin is considered as an alternative proposition, then data relevant for the Danish society suggests that the threshold of likelihood ratios should approximately be between 150,000 and 2,000,000 in order to take the risk of an unrecognised identical, monozygotic twin into consideration. In other societies, the threshold of the likelihood ratio in crime cases may reach other, often lower, values depending on the recognition of monozygotic twins and the age of the suspect. In general, more strictly kept registries will imply larger thresholds on the likelihood ratio as the monozygotic twin explanation gets less probable.