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The Driver Behaviour Questionnaire as accident predictor; A methodological re-meta-analysis.

A E Af Wåhlberg1, P Barraclough2, J Freeman2

  • 1Empirica, Sweden.

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Summary

The Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) may overestimate the link between driver violations and accidents. Methodological issues and publication bias inflate reported effect sizes, suggesting the true effect is near zero.

Keywords:
Common method varianceDissemination biasDriver Behavior QuestionnaireExposureSelf-report

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Area of Science:

  • Traffic Safety Research
  • Psychological Measurement
  • Accident Prediction

Background:

  • The Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) is a widely used self-report measure in traffic safety.
  • Previous meta-analyses suggested a predictive link between DBQ violations and accident involvement.
  • These prior analyses did not account for methodological biases or unpublished data.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To re-analyze studies predicting accident involvement from DBQ factors, including unpublished data.
  • To investigate methodological effects and dissemination bias influencing reported effect sizes.
  • To determine the true relationship between driver behavior (DBQ factors) and accident involvement.

Main Methods:

  • Re-analysis of existing studies, incorporating unpublished results and DBQ factors like lapses.
  • Statistical tests for dissemination bias (publication bias) and common method variance.
  • Outlier analysis to identify and address unreliable data points.

Main Results:

  • Outlier analysis did not significantly alter overall findings.
  • Tendencies for published effects to be larger than unpublished and to decrease over time were observed but not significant.
  • Studies using self-reported accidents showed inflated effects compared to recorded data; controlling for exposure reduced effect sizes.
  • The true correlation between violations and accident involvement is likely close to zero (r < .07).

Conclusions:

  • Methodological factors and dissemination bias have inflated the published effect sizes of the DBQ.
  • Evidence suggests artefactual effects contribute to the perceived link between DBQ violations and accidents.
  • Future traffic safety research should use greater caution with the DBQ and employ more comprehensive validation methods for self-reports.