Features associated with progression of small pancreatic cystic lesions: A retrospective study

To investigate the progression rate of small pancreatic cystic lesions and identify characteristics associated with their progression.

Patients with pancreatic cystic lesions with at least 1-year of follow-up were evaluated retrospectively. We excluded patients with cysts larger than 3 cm or with features that were a concern for malignancy. In total, 135 patients were evaluated. The interval progression of the cysts was examined. Characteristics were compared between patients with and without progression.

The pancreatic cysts ranged from 3 to 29 mm. The mean follow-up period was 4.5 ± 2.3 years and the mean progression rate was 1.0 ± 1.3 mm/year. Ninety patients showed interval progression and were divided into two groups; the minimal-change group (n = 41), who had cyst progression at less than 1 mm/year, and the progression group (n = 49), who had a progression rate of more than 1 mm/year. Compared with the cysts without progression, the lesions of the progression group were more frequently associated with tubular cyst, septation or a prominent pancreatic duct (P < 0.05). The odds ratio for progression was 5.318 for septation and 4.582 for tubular cysts.

Small pancreatic cysts progress slowly. Lesions with tubular shape, septa, or prominent pancreatic duct were more likely to progress, and required further diagnostic intervention or shorter surveillance interval.