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Integrated population modelling reveals a perceived source to be a cryptic sink.

Mitch D Weegman1,2, Stuart Bearhop1, Anthony D Fox3

  • 1Centre for Ecology and Conservation, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Cornwall Campus, Penryn, TR10 9EZ, UK.

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Summary

Large goose populations may be demographic sinks, not sources. High immigration can mask declining recruitment, showing the need for advanced population models to understand conservation needs.

Keywords:
capture-mark-recapturedemographydensity dependencedispersalextinction riskhierarchical modellong-distance migrant birdmetapopulation model

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Population Biology
  • Conservation Biology

Background:

  • Source-sink dynamics are crucial for understanding fragmented populations.
  • Large aggregations are often assumed to be population sources, but may be sinks sustained by immigration.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To test the assumption that large aggregations must be population sources.
  • To investigate the source-sink dynamics of the Greenland white-fronted goose (Anser albifrons flavirostris) at its largest wintering site in Wexford, Ireland.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Bayesian integrated population modeling (IPM) combining capture-mark-recapture, census, and recruitment data (1982-2010).
  • Parameterized an age-structured population projection matrix to assess movement rates, recruitment, and mortality.
  • Analyzed survival and per capita recruitment rates over the study period.

Main Results:

  • Survival rates for juvenile and adult geese at Wexford did not differ significantly from elsewhere.
  • Per capita recruitment rates at Wexford declined significantly after 1995.
  • The Wexford subpopulation's persistence was dependent on high immigration rates, exceeding emigration annually, indicating it functioned as a sink.

Conclusions:

  • Large subpopulations can function as demographic sinks, sustained by immigration.
  • Immigration can obscure underlying population dynamics and mask declining recruitment.
  • Integrated population models combining multiple data types are essential for accurate source-sink assessment and effective conservation strategies.