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Model Selection in Historical Research Using Approximate Bayesian Computation.

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  • 1Computer Applications in Science & Engineering department, Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, Barcelona, Spain.

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This summary is machine-generated.

Model-Based History uses computational models to analyze historical dynamics. A new fatigue model for Lanchester

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Area of Science:

  • Computational Social Science
  • Quantitative History
  • Bayesian Modeling

Background:

  • Formal models are increasingly used in historical dynamics research.
  • Model-Based History leverages quantitative methods and datasets for historical analysis.
  • Challenges include modeling social interaction and evaluating models with fragmented, low-sample data.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate Lanchester's laws of combat using a Bayesian-inspired model selection method.
  • To test four variations of Lanchester's equations, including a novel fatigue model.
  • To demonstrate the utility of model selection for historical research.

Main Methods:

  • Bayesian-inspired model selection.
  • Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) for parameter inference and model selection.
  • Analysis of a dataset of over 1,000 battles spanning 300 years.

Main Results:

  • Decisive evidence supports the new fatigue model over classical Lanchester's laws.
  • Parameter estimations and model selection offer new insights into warfare evolution.
  • The study validates the effectiveness of model selection in comparing historical hypotheses with empirical data.

Conclusions:

  • The fatigue model provides a more accurate representation of historical combat dynamics.
  • Bayesian model selection is a powerful tool for advancing quantitative historical research.
  • This approach enhances the interpretation of historical evidence through formal modeling.