Using Species Distribution Models to Predict Potential Landscape Restoration Effects on Puma Conservation
Cintia Camila Silva Angelieri1,2, Christine Adams-Hosking2, Katia Maria Paschoaletto Micchi de Barros Ferraz3
1University of São Paulo, Water Resources and Environmental Studies Centre, São Carlos School of Engineering, São Carlos, SP, Brazil.
Plos One
|January 7, 2016
Summary
Habitat restoration in São Paulo State, Brazil, can significantly increase suitable puma (Puma concolor) habitat. Meeting native vegetation cover rules on private lands is key for conservation and land use planning.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Conservation Biology
- Spatial Analysis
Background:
- Top predators like pumas (Puma concolor) require diverse habitats, including native and human-modified vegetation, to maintain ecological balance.
- Habitat fragmentation and human development pose significant threats to puma populations, particularly in highly developed regions like São Paulo State, Brazil.
Purpose of the Study:
- To map current puma habitat suitability in São Paulo State.
- To identify key environmental variables influencing puma habitat.
- To project future habitat suitability under native vegetation restoration scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Developed Species Distribution Models using the Maximum Entropy algorithm with 342 presence-only records.
- Utilized seven non-correlated environmental variables, including native vegetation percentage, elevation, and road density.
- Projected model outputs onto future restoration scenarios based on the Brazilian Forest Code.
Main Results:
- The percentage of native vegetation, elevation, and road density were the most influential variables for puma habitat suitability.
- Restoration scenarios showed a strong positive correlation with increased puma habitat suitability.
- Achieving 20% native vegetation cover on private lands increased high suitability areas from 5.3% to 8.5% of the state.
Conclusions:
- Landscape planning incorporating habitat restoration on private lands is crucial for puma conservation.
- Restoration efforts can create new high-suitability areas for pumas in deforested regions.
- Findings can inform environmental policies and land use planning in São Paulo State, Brazil.
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